The Unrest in Bangladesh: A Well-Orchestrated Political Uprising or a Protest by Students?
On August 5, 2024, the tumultuous demonstrations in Bangladesh forced Sheikh Hasina to step down. Farooq Abdullah, president of the National Conference (NC), commented on the crisis that this would be the “fate of every dictator.”
“The Islamic movement has been started there inspired by the atrocities done to the Muslims all around the world,” Abdullah said.
Abdullah’s remarks appear to be driven by political motives rather than being based on factual accuracy. Describing the Bangladesh uprising as an “Islamist Movement” influenced by the worldwide situation of Muslims is inaccurate and a misguided exaggeration.
If the case had been the Muslim scenario across the globe, then uprisings should have taken place in more powerful and vocal Muslim nations like Turkey, Iran, Egypt and Pakistan. But the crisis started in Bangladesh – a small nation lacking global heft.
Irrelevant To Compare J&K With Bangladesh Crisis
Former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti also tried to draw parallels with Bangladesh, trying to take a dig at PM Modi. It is irrelevant to compare Jammu and Kashmir with the Bangladesh crisis, as both are fundamentally different.
India undoubtedly has both internal and foreign obstacles, including increasing unemployment, inflation, narcoterrorism, cross-border terrorism, the China threat, and internal security concerns. However, it is unlikely to encounter a fate similar to that of Bangladesh. The robust security infrastructure protecting the borders and the security agencies, ranging from para-military forces to the police, are effective in safeguarding the nation from both external and internal security risks.
Furthermore, the nation is instituted on democratic principles, with a judiciary that operates independently and is not subject to political influence or control.
In 2019, the central government decided to repeal Articles 370 and 35A and divided the state into two Union Territories, namely the Union Territory of Ladakh and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The Supreme Court received a challenge to the abrogation of Article 370, which was subsequently considered by a Constitution Bench consisting of five judges. The adjudication of cases such as the challenge to the abrogation highlights the fair judicial system and the paramountcy of law in the nation. Such instances are rare in nations governed by authoritarian regimes or military dominance.
When the two former CMs of J&K allege that there is a dictatorship growing in the country and the scope for dissent is diminishing, they fail to acknowledge their recent participation in the democratic process of the Lok Sabha elections.
The Role Of Jamaat-e-Islami In the Bangladesh Crisis
The Bangladesh Uprising is a complex phenomenon that encompasses several aspects. The problem has historical roots. There are several aspects and players involved. Various factors need to be examined, including the involvement of Jamat-e-Islami, the influence of the USA, the participation of the opposition BNP, the impact of China, and the increasing importance of India in the South Asian region.
It is extremely simplistic to call the Bangladesh crisis a fallout of students’ rage. It has far wider political ramifications, indicating the underlying social and political conflicts in Bangladesh. If it was a students’ protest, why didn’t it stop after July 21, when the Supreme Court gave its ruling and revoked the reservation?
Student unrest is a convenient façade for the Bangladesh crisis. There were many players behind the curtain. A pivotal player in this game is Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh. Jamaat saw the turn of events as a good opportunity to oust the former PM. Under the guise of ‘student protest’, Jamaat and allied players ensured that Sheikh Hasina had to leave Bangladesh.
Role of USA in August 2024 Uprising in Bangladesh
The involvement of the CIA in the August uprising has been much debated. Elections took place in Bangladesh on January 7 this year. During the election, delegates from the United States were sent to meet key leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the largest opposition party. This is a rarity. They also conducted meetings with members of Jamaat, which is even more uncommon. Engaging with an extremist organization that has been banned by the Supreme Court of the country looked suspicious to many.
Sheikh Hasina claimed that the United States expressed interest in establishing a naval station in this region. Additionally, she mentioned that a predominantly white Christian nation is attempting to carve out an independent country by taking territories from India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. The predictions were startling at the time. But recent developments have indicated that these claims were accurate to a significant degree.
The Bangladesh government headed by Sheikh Hasia maintained a highly favorable rapport with India. It had actively endeavored to establish a harmonious equilibrium with China. The United States sought to isolate China and prevent India from attaining a significant level of autonomy in the South Asian region.
USA may intend to establish a strong military presence in Bangladesh. This might lead to a significant shift in how the USA operates in this region.
The former Bangladesh Prime Minister has accused the United States government of conspiring to oust her from power. According to The Economic Times, Hasina claimed in a message conveyed through her close associates that she was ousted because she had refused to hand over to the US the Bangladeshi territory of Saint Martin Island, in the Bay of Bengal. In her latest message, she also warned Bangladeshi nationals against being “manipulated by radicals”.
Security and strategy analysts have noted that the driving forces behind the students’ unrest and the exit of Sheikh Hasina were a core group of fundamentalist Jamaat members and BNP, who had support from the CIA. There is an assumption that the USA intends to establish a strong presence in Bangladesh, maybe by constructing a naval base and installing a government that would be subservient to their interests. This might lead to a significant shift in how the USA operates in this region.
Instability in the Bangladesh is Bad for the Sub-Continent
Many political analysts have concluded that the US is interested in safeguarding its strategic interests in Bangladesh in the guise of reforming democracy and intends to establish a strong naval base by attaining Saint Martin Island. Meanwhile, the disgruntled political elite of Jammu and Kashmir are ruing that democracy is in danger in the region and that the new actions and legislations are necessarily anti-people. Paradoxically, a significant portion of this disillusionment stems from individuals who have suppressed democratic processes in Kashmir for many decades.
The overwhelming leverage taken by the fundamentalists in Bangladesh is emboldening the radical and anti-democratic elements in many countries, including India and Pakistan
The US’s backing of fundamentalist lobbies in Bangladesh seems more an attempt to destabilize democracy than to reform. Informed analysts have hinted at the efforts of the US to install a government that shall be subservient to their interests.
If we accept that the US wants to reform, safeguard, and strengthen the roots of democracy, then the question arises – Why in Bangladesh? Why not in Pakistan, where the recently held elections were rigged and manipulated?
The overwhelming leverage taken by the fundamentalists in Bangladesh is emboldening the radical and anti-democratic elements in many countries, including India and Pakistan. Fearing the danger of a similar uprising, Pakistan Army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, has warned against any attempts to create Bangladesh-type chaos in his message to the nation. While a stable and approachable government in Dhaka is crucial for India’s regional security and economic interests, the rise of radical elements, the influx of refugees, and potential cross-border tensions are all concerns that India needs to navigate carefully.
Zahoor Ahmad Shah is Deputy Director, Centre for Kashmir Analysis and Research (C-KAR)
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