Mangti Versus Panun: New Narratives, and Panic Mode for All Parties in J&K
After the Lok Sabha elections in April-May this year, a new narrative of Mangti versus Panun has developed in Kashmir. Both the words are Kashmiri – with connotations emphasizing the native or alien nature and origin of the person or object. The hitherto unknown phenomenon has taken Kashmir by surprise, but nobody has contested it.
If an election candidate is not the resident of a constituency, he is labelled as Mangti, which means adopted child. The local or the ‘son of the soil’ is called Panun – largely this candidate is preferred and promoted.
Before the Lok Sabha elections, Kashmir did not have any such dichotomy. The term Mangti came to the limelight after former chief minister and National Conference (NC) leader Omar Abdullah decided to contest the Lok Sabha election from Baramulla. The Abdullah family hails from Soura on the outskirts of Srinagar city.
All Politicians Are Scared – And Why
J&K Assembly Elections 2024 are unique from the perspective that every party is in panic. Omar Abdullah ended his ‘To Be or Not to Be’ dilemma, and now he is contesting from two seats – Ganderbal and Budgam. He is in panic for both.
Former NC leader Ishfaq Jabbar is contesting from Ganderbal on his newly-formed party, Jammu Kashmir United Movement (JKUM). Jabbar recently called Omar Abdullah a Mangti for Ganderbal. Battle-lines are drawn.
The simmering anger against the traditional dynastic political parties in Kashmir can be assessed from the defeat of Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti in the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year.
Before the Lok Sabha elections, Kashmir did not have the dichotomy of Mangti and Panun
Abdullah’s panic was evident at a public rally in Ganderbal after filing his nomination papers, where he took off his cap and said on an emotional high, “My honour, my turban and my cap are in your hands.”
This gesture and statement of Omar shall remain as one of the most defining moments of the J&K Assembly Elections 2024. Omar always speaks in Urdu at rallies, and this was a rare moment when he spoke in Kashmiri.
Omar is urging people to give him another opportunity to serve them. Coming from the third-generation chief minister of Kashmir’s leading political family, this is ironical. There is deep distrust and cynicism among people about the way the Abdullahs and the Muftis ruled Kashmir for decades and indulged in all kinds of political maneuvers to stay in power.
But people feel that they still have no choice. BJP has been villainized so severely in Kashmir that most Kashmiris do not want to vote for any party seen aligned with it. Hence by default, NC may get the largest vote share. This couplet by 18th-century poet Mir Taqi Mir well describes the dilemma of Kashmir’s voters.
Mir kya saada hain bimaar hue jiske sabab
Ussi ataar ke ladke se dawa lete hain.
Engineer Rashid’s Party May Lag
MP Engineer Rashid’s bubble seems to have burst. Many see him as a BJP stooge. His unpredictable nature and recent statements post his bail from Tihar jail have made Kashmir suspicious of him and have punctured his mystique. Ostensibly his silence in jail was better for his party’s electoral prospects.
Thousands of people thronged MP Rashid’s rally to see him. But counting them as voters for his party will be erroneous. Elections are seen and celebrated as a huge mela (festival) in Kashmir. It is part of Kashmir’s culture that people come out in large numbers for political rallies.
J&K Assembly Elections 2024 are unique for the perspective that every party is in panic
This voluntary participation of people does not ensure that they will vote for the same candidate. Their votes may go to his opponent.
Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) was pitched as the toofan (storm) for the Assembly elections but may not win high. “Hardly two-three seats for AIP and if any qayamat happens, then four seats,” quipped a political analyst at Kashmir University. Rashid’s jaadu has waned.
All Parties Have Limited Options
The National Conference-Congress combine is expected to win the larger share of seats in the Kashmir region. This is despite the intense fragmentation in votes in Kashmir courtesy of AIP, Jamaat-e-Islami candidates and other independent candidates.
NC-Congress may fall short of an absolute majority and may need the support of other parties or the victorious independent candidates to form the government. This is a scenario where all parties have limited options, and all are deeply anxious.
If BJP wins less than 30 seats in the Jammu region, its hopes of forming the government in J&K shall be dim
Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is aware that it may not win many seats. So Mehbooba’s daughter Iltija is calling her party the “kingmaker” in the J&K Assembly elections. PDP does not have any other option if it wants to remain relevant in Kashmir politics. It shall have to be content as an alliance partner in the government – if the chance presents itself.
Bleak Times For BJP
BJP can hope to form the government in J&K only if it sweeps Assembly seats in the Jammu region. But given crippling infighting within, anti-incumbency and other factors, BJP is in a tight position in Jammu and is not confident of matching its past performance. There are 43 Assembly seats in Jammu and 47 in Kashmir. If BJP wins less than 30 seats in the Jammu region, its hopes of forming the government in J&K shall be dim.
Overall, the situation is grim for the BJP. The few seats won by Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference and Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party may not help if the BJP is unable to reach the critical mark in Jammu.
NC is reportedly in talks with Sajad and some independent candidates for the post-poll alliance. If they reach at an agreement, J&K may see an NDA-kind of alliance in the power corridors.
J&K Assembly Elections 2024: Highlights
- NC-Congress combine may win the largest number of seats but may fall short of majority
- BJP is facing a challenge between expectations and realities on the ground
- Hung mandate is a possibility, hence LG rule may continue
- Engineer Rashid may not emerge as the trump card, though he will fragment the vote
- Jamaat candidates may indirectly benefit BJP by fragmenting votes
- The rebel challenge in Jammu may significantly pull down BJP’s performance.
Zahoor Ahmad is Deputy Director, Center for Kashmir Analysis and Research(C-KAR)
(Got a fresh perspective? CKAR invites orginal articles and opinion pieces that haven’t been published else where. Send you submissions to deputydirector@c-kar.com)