Heads I Win, Tails You Lose: Whichever Way People Vote, JK Assembly Elections 2024 Is Modi-Shah’s Mega Political Masterstroke
The Assembly elections of 2024 in J&K UT shall be counted among Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah’s biggest political masterstrokes.
Here is why.
- The Modi-Shah combine has ensured that the government complied with the directive of the Supreme Court to hold elections before September 30, 2024.
- The duo has ensured that globally, nobody will be able to attack India with the charge that India is undemocratic because elections to J&K are not being held.
- JK’s regional political parties were constantly hitting out at the Centre that it had not held Assembly elections in the region, when scheduled. Their charge has been silenced.
Modi-Shah’s Master Strategy
The Modi-Shah combine has fragmented the Kashmir vote to the extent that no single party is likely to win the majority vote. Engineer Rashid and Jamaat e Islami will significantly fragment the vote in Kashmir, so NC-Congress is not likely to get a clear majority of seats here.
Voters in the Union Territory will cast their vote in three phases from 18 September to 1 October to elect 90 members of the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly. There are 47 Assembly seats in Kashmir region and 43 in Jammu region.
The Modi-Shah master strategy of vote fragmentation has hit National Conference (NC) the hardest
For over a decade, Jammu has been a BJP stronghold. BJP is expected to win the lion’s share of seats in Jammu region. It is unlikely that the NC-Congress combine will get enough seats in Jammu.
Coming to Kashmir, the Modi-Shah master strategy of vote fragmentation has hit National Conference (NC) the hardest. On the first day of polling on September 18, former chief minister and NC leader Omar Abdullah appealed to voters to vote wisely and avoid “fragmentation of their votes”.
The vote has been significantly fragmented by Member of Parliament (MP) Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP). The blow has been made worse by the tie-up between AIP and Jamaat E Islami (JEI), which has fielded independent candidates. This move has majorly hurt Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP), since JEI and its cadre was the traditional voter base for PDP candidates.
AIP chief and Member of Parliament (MP) Engineer Rashid has not ruled out a tie-up of his party with BJP for government formation. In an interview to a news channel, MP Rashid was asked whether there was any possibility of AIP allying with BJP for forming the government.
MP Rashid said that in case such a situation develops, his doors are not shut for anyone. “We will see at that time what the situation is,” he said.
When news came that Engineer Rashid was being released for campaigning for the Assembly elections, NC leader Omar Abdullah and PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti were quick to label him as a BJP proxy.
With his fiery attack at BJP soon after his release, Engineer Rashid worked hard to dispel any notion that he is a BJP stooge or BJP proxy. He also stated to the media that he does not want to form the government. His purpose is to keep the “Kashmir issue” alive, he said.
Political Masterstroke 2: The Independent Candidates
Assembly elections 2024 in J&K UT feature an astounding number of independent candidates. More than 40 per cent of the 908 candidates contesting the elections are Independents. Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti have both charged that a large number of independent candidates have been propped up by the BJP to divide votes.
In all possible scenarios, BJP seems to have the trump card in Kashmir.
With these multiple maneuvers, BJP may manage a political takeover in Kashmir. The high number of independent candidates is an indication of this takeover. It is commonly discussed in Kashmir that all the independent candidates who win the elections will join the BJP camp. Omar Abdullah recently said that a vote for an independent candidate is a vote for BJP.
The Climactic Stroke: What If Nobody Wins A Majority
One real scenario that may emerge is that no party may win a full majority to form the government. In that case, J&K UT will revert to LG rule. This again is a win for the BJP government at the Centre.
Initially after being released from jail on September 11 for campaigning for his party, Engineer Rashid was full of fiery hyperbole against the BJP. But the ambiguity in his statement on September 18 is not to be missed. “We will see at that time what the situation is.” This statement by MP Rashid shows that he has not closed doors to BJP and has kept his options open.
An alternate realistic scenario is that Engineer Rashid and Jamaat candidates may take the moral high ground that they shall not join hands with BJP to form the government. With this, BJP’s political masterstroke shall be complete. If no party is able to claim majority to form the government, LG rule shall continue in Jammu and Kashmir. In all possible scenarios, BJP seems to have the trump card in Kashmir.
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