Verdict J and K: NC Has All The Aces, Congress Doesn’t Even Have A Jack

Does Congress Have Reason To Celebrate In J&K or A Lot To Ponder Upon?

Omar Abdullah has said what everybody has known from the time the results were announced.  National Conference would have done well even without the alliance with the Congress. “We would have won seats without the Congress, except probably one of them,” he stated.

This sums up where the Congress stands in J&K after the victory of the NC-INC alliance. Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections 2O24 culminated on October 8 with the declaration of results.  Indian National Congress (INC), the country’s grand old party, failed to score high. While Haryana has been a huge blow for the Congress, it has no reason to celebrate in J&K either, where it shall be part of the alliance partnership.

Jammu and Kashmir, the failure of the Congress got masked only because its pre-poll alliance partner National Conference (NC) performed well.

Out of 90 seats, NC scored the highest, winning in 42 constituencies. With a few more MLAs on its side, National Conference does not need the Congress in J&K.

J&K People’s Conference chief Sajad Lone’s words for the Congress are an appropriate analysis. Lone suggested that the Congress should have contested JK Assembly polls solo to recover its lost glory in JK politics.

“If there was a time when Congress could have become a popular party in Kashmir, that was this time. But Rahul allied and demolished the party. Had he not joined the alliance and just appealed to the people of Kashmir that I know you want Statehood back, the day I come into power, I will ensure Kashmir gets its statehood back. Don’t waste your time here and there with small regional parties. They can’t help you in any way in getting statehood back”.

This analysis is correct. Congress going solo and promising to fight in the Parliament for J&K statehood would have generated a wave in favour of the party.

The Congress must ponder whether going into an alliance with NC was a wise decision

Rahul Gandhi chose the alliance with a regional party and squandered the public sentiment which he could have mobilised. He practically ensured that no leader of a sizable standing would fight under his banner. NC tactically assigned those seats to the Congress where the party had to hunt for good candidates.

As an alliance partner, India’s grand old party will have to walk on eggshells in J&K, because with 42 MLAs, NC is Big Boss. Congress will live with fears as they have everything to lose and nothing to dictate.

NC chief Farooq Abdullah has called the chief ministership a crown of thorns, but that applies only to any friction with the BJP government at the Centre.

In the government of J&K UT, NC holds all the Aces. The Congress is in a reduced, powerless position.

This realization will impact the Congress psychologically.

BJP Has Performed Well In Its Bastion

‌‌BJP fielded a total of 62 candidates. Out of the 43 Assembly seats in Jammu Division, BJP won 29, emerging as the single largest party in the region.

INC could win only six seats all over J&K. The party’s individual performance hit an all-time low with only one seat in Jammu. Prominent leaders of the Congress including two of its working presidents lost the polls.

‌BJP won all 11 seats in Jammu district, all three in Samba, all four in Udhampur, and five out of six in Kathua. The party also secured the newly created Shri Mata Vaishno Devi constituency despite a pre-poll fiasco over ticket distribution and infighting.

For India’s grand old party, a tough road lies ahead in J&K, even though it shall be part of the power corridors

‌BJP had anticipated a fractured mandate in Kashmir valley. This did not happen, and the NC sweep ended BJP’s dream to lead the government in J&K.

NC’s Strategy Of All-Out Attacks Won

The Valley saw a strong NC wave which is now even evident from the results.

NC managed to secure high numbers in Kashmir thanks to its no-holds barred strategy against BJP. The oldest party of J&K managed to effectively propagate the narrative that it was the only real front to stall the advancement of BJP.

NC labelled all other parties including Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) leader, MP Engineer Rashid, as a BJP proxy. National Conference could also maneuver the public fatigue prevailing in the region against the prolonged bureaucratic rule.

‌NC’s stand against the BJP and its decision to keep the Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP) out of its alliance with the Congress worked in its favour. NC reinforced the narrative that PDP  carrying the baggage of its ties with the BJP, which many in Kashmir Valley feel led to the abrogation of Article 370.

The Voting Percentage Analysis

From the voting percentage point of view, BJP performed better than NC but could not win the desired number of seats to form the government. BJP secured 25.64 per cent votes, which is the highest by any single political party in the UT.

NC scored 23.43 per cent votes followed by INC at 11.97 per cent, PDP at 8.87 per cent and all others combined at 24.83 per cent. Looking at these figures and keeping in view the political and ruling history of INC, the figures are not satisfactory for what was once the grand old party.

BJP has lost the chance to lead the government in J&K. But its impressive performance in Jammu region cannot be denied. PDP is fighting for survival and relevance in Kashmir politics. Many feel that the party may meet the fate of dinosaurs.

The Congress, meanwhile, has many questions self-introspection. Has it gained in J&K? Or is it losing  political stakes in the region?

Questions For The Congress

• Was going into an alliance with NC a wise decision?
• Did it hurt or benefit Congress?
• How strong will be their role in government, given their small numbers?
• Will they have any definite say in crucial matters?

For India’s grand old party, a tough road lies ahead even in the region where it shall be part of the power corridors.

 

Zahoor Ahmad is the Deputy Director, Center for Kashmir Analysis and Research(C-KAR)

(Got a fresh perspective? CKAR invites original articles and opinion pieces that haven’t been published elsewhere. Send your submissions to deputydirector@c-kar.com)