Unfolding the Mathematical Equations of J and K Assembly Elections 2024
After ten long years, Jammu and Kashmir its electing its government again.
J&K Assembly elections were conducted in three phases. The first phase, which took place on September 18, witnessed a voter turnout of 61.38%. The second phase, on September 25, registered voter turnout of 57.31%. The third and final phase, which took place on October 1, saw a turnout of 68.72%. There were 873 candidates in the fray, including 43 women, in 90 constituencies, with an overall average voter turnout of 63%.
We immediately began gathering opinion-based data from each of J&K’s 90 seats following the conclusion of each phase. Diverse voter perspectives during interviews with several sections of people illustrate an intriguing turn in this race.
Assessment Of Assembly Segments
The Congress-NC combine is at the top of the 2024 election hierarchy. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is next, followed by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), People’s Conference (PC) and others given in the table below
Dr. Suheel Rasool Mir, a sociologist from Kashmir, and Dr. Aadil M. Nanda, a post-doctoral researcher in geography, undertook a thorough and in-depth analysis of the 2014 Assembly election. In Kashmir, traditional regional parties like NC and PDP are the favourite for a large section of voters, especially those born between 1960s and 1990s. On the contrary, in Jammu region, BJP is expected to win the majority of the votes.
Out of 90 seats, no party is likely to get absolute majority
The generational shift in voting preferences is more stark when we compare first-time voters and those born in the 1990s. These two groups have displayed distinct attitudes with conflicting electoral sentiments and preferences. Some voters favoured fresh faces, some voted against dynasties, while still others opted for emotional appeal. We analysed and assessed the opinions of voters from different demographic, ethnic and geographic backgrounds.
Phase 1: Chenab Valley and South Kashmir
219 candidates contested in the first phase, including 9 women across 24 constituencies. Eight of the 24 constituencies are in the Chenab valley in the Jammu region (Kishtwar, Doda, and Ramban districts), while 16 are in south Kashmir (Anantnag, Kulgam, Pulwama, and Shopian).
To gather the opinions of voters from 24 constituencies with a range of age groups, genders, and ethnicities, the findings were evaluated using network sampling and social contacts from the South Kashmir and Chanab Valley segments. To minimise mistakes, the collected data was cross-checked.
Phase 1: Analysis of Exit Polls
A total of 219 candidates from different political parties including (National Conference-Indian National Congress, People’s Democratic Party, Bharatiya Janata Party, People’s Conference, AIP, Apni Party, CPI (M), and independent candidates) contested in the seven districts of Phase 1, comprising 24 constituencies. National Conference is expected to lead by at least eight seats and up to twelve seats. This is followed by the PDP, expected to win at least three and up to six seats.
Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to win at least two seats and up to four seats in the Phase 1 constituencies. Congress is gaining a majority in at least two seats, with a maximum of three seats, followed by others with at least one seat.
Sakina Itoo, former speaker and wife of well-known politician Wali Mohammad Itoo of the National Conference, is expected to win her seat in the D. H. Pora Constituency in the Kulgam region of South Kashmir.
Voters from the D.H. Pora constituency were interviewed. They stated that Sakina Itoo is popular for having developed D.H. Pora and its outlying territories.
CPI (M) veteran Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami and former Jamaat Islamia leader Sayar Ahmad Reshi are running a neck-to-neck race in the Kulgam constituency. Tarigami is probably going to keep his seat in Kulgam. The battle is fierce, as in the Devasr constituency. It is likely that Sartaj Madni, prominent leader of the People’s Democratic Party and maternal uncle of Party president Mehbooba Mufti, may be the winning candidate for the Devasr assembly seat.
In contrast to the 2014 election, there is a twist in the Anantnag district. Altaf Kaloo, NC leader from Pahalgam Constituency, is expected to win his seat, and Riyaz Khan of NC from Anantnag East.
NC and PDP are engaged in a fierce battle in Anantnag West, with NC having advantage. Although the rivalry is fierce, AP Hilal Shah has advantage in main Anantnag.
Despite fierce competition, NC might be able to hold onto its seat at Kokernag ST. General Secretary AICC G. A. Mir, who is supported by the Alliance, may win the Dooru Constituency seat.
According to a survey done in the Bijbehara constituency, NC and PDP are competing hard, but PDP might emerge victorious. The NC candidate and an independent candidate are competing closely in the Shopian constituency. In Shopian district, NC may keep the Zainapora seat.
In Pulwama district, PDP is expected to win two seats: Waheed Parra from Pulwama and Zahoor Mir from Pampore. Gh Mohi Ud-din Mir of NC is expected to win the seat from Rajpora.
Tral constituency will see a close race between the Independent candidate and PDP, with advantage for PDP candidate Rafeeq Ahmad Naik.
Chenab Valley
The region includes the districts of Kishtwar, Doda, Bhaderwah, and Ramban. Three seats—one from each of the districts of Ramban, Doda East, and Kishtwar—are likely to be won by National Conference.
BJP is expected to win two seats, one from Bhaderwah and one from Padder Nagseni, district Kishtwar. INC may win three seats, one from each of the districts of Banihal, Doda West, and Inderwal.
Phase Two: Analysis of Exit Polls
239 candidates participated in the second phase of voting, which took place on September 25 in 26 constituencies in six districts, including 15 in central Kashmir and 11 in the Pir Panjal region. PDP received the most nominations (26), followed by the NC (26), the BJP (17), the Congress (06), and other parties, including independent candidates (117).
In Central Kashmir, which includes the districts of Ganderbal, Budgam, and Srinagar, Mian Mehar Ali’s seat from Kangan and party vice president Omer Abdullah’s seat from Ganderbal Constituency are likely to be won by NC. With three seats—Ali M. Sagar (Khanayar), Lal Chowk (Ahsan Pardesi), Tanveer Sadiq (Zaidabal) – and three close contests between NC and PDP (Hazratbal), NC and BJP (Habba Kadal), and PDP and NC (Eidgah)—NC is expected to gain a significant portion of the vote in the district of Srinagar.
Syed Altaf Bukhari, the founder and president of the Apni Party, is expected to maintain his position in Chanapora constituency. Tariq Hamid Kaara, the party president of JKINC, is probably going to win from Central Shalteng.
There is fierce contest between NC and PDF in Khansahab. NC is expected to win two seats in the district of Budgam: one from Chadora and one contested by Party Vice President Omar Abdullah from Budgam. Gh. Nabi Hanjura (PDP) and Nazir A. Khan (AIP) are likely to defeat NC in the Chari Sharief and Beerwah constituencies.
Pir Panjal Region
NC is expected to win a maximum of five seats in the Pir Panjal region. These include Mendhar and Poonch Havelli in Poonch, two seats in Rajouri, including Nowshera and Budhal, and one seat in Gulabgarh Reasi.
BJP is likely to win at least four seats, including one each from Surankote, Thanamandi, and Shri Mata Vaishno Devi and Reasi. There is a fierce battle between BJP and NC in Kalakoot, with advantage to the BJP. There is fierce competition between INC and BJP in main Rajouri.
Phase Three: Analysis of Exit Polls
In the third phase of voting, which took place on October 1 in 40 constituencies across seven districts—three in North Kashmir and four in Jammu Centre—415 candidates tested their fortunes.
Let’s analyse North Kashmir’s Bandipora, Baramulla, and Kupwara districts. Hilal Akbar of National Conference is expected to win the Sumbal-Sonawari seat in the Bandipora district. Usman Majeed, an independent candidate competing against INC is likely to keep the Bandipora seat.
National Conference and Bharatiya Janata Party are in a close race in the Gurez constituency, and NC MLA Nazir A. Khan has advantage over BJP. In district Baramulla, with seven constituencies, Irshad Rasool Kar of the Sopore Constituency and Farooq Ahmad Shah (NC) of Gulmarg Constituency are set to win. Imran Ansari, Shia leader of People’s Conference, is expected to win from Pattan. Shoaib Lone (AIP) has a slim advantage in Baramulla constituency.
In the Rafiabad constituency, Apni Party and NC are in a close race. In Kreeri Constituency, there is a fierce contest between PDP and INC, with an advantage for PDP candidate Basharat Bukhari.
In Uri, there is fierce competition between the independent candidate and NC. Senior politician Taj Mohiuddin is contesting as an independent candidate and has minor advantage.
National Conference is expected to win from Lolab and from Karnah. People’s conference is likely to receive a significant number of votes from Handwara and Langate. In Trehgam, the fight between NC and PC is close. While there is fierce fight between the PDP and NC in Kupwara, PDP has a minor advantage.
Jammu’s Verdict
In Jammu region – which includes the districts of Samba, Kathua, Udhampur, and Jammu – BJP is expected to win a minimum of 15 seats and a maximum of 18 seats, and secure the majority here.
BJP is anticipated to win in district Udhampur, from Ramnagar, Udhampur East, and Udhampur West. JKNPPI and BJP will compete closely in Chhamb. There is close contest in Ramgarh constituency between BJP and INC.
The expected fractured mandate has made this election more like a mathematical equation with two major parties i.e. NC and BJP as the significant players
BJP is expected to win two seats in the districts of Samba and Vijaypur. BJP may win at least three seats in district Kathua (Jasrota, Kathua, and Hiranagr). INC is expected to win two seats from the Basholi and Bani constituencies. The battle between the BJP and INC is fierce in the Bilawar constituency.
In Jammu district which comprises of 11 seats, the Bharatiya Janta Party is expected to win the majority. Raman Bhalla and Tara Chand, two of the INC’s most well-known figures, are expected to win from R. S. Pura in Jammu South and Chhamb. BJP and INC are engaged in fierce competition in the remaining two constituencies, Bahu and Bishnah. Neeraj Kundun and Taranjit Singh, the INC candidates from Bishnah and Bahu, might have an advantage.
Possibilities of Government Formation and Alliances
From the above-mentioned data and findings, it is clear that National Conference is winning the highest seats from UT of J&K followed by BJP, INC, PDP and others.
Out of 90 seats, no party is likely to get absolute majority. There are possibilities of an alliance of two to three political parties. Each political party may have a significant role in government formation. The expected fractured mandate has made this election more like a mathematical equation with two major parties i.e. NC and BJP as the significant players.
Any political party that wishes to be part of government formation will to join either NC or BJP. NC which was in alliance with the Congress still needs some key players to form the government. The equation shapes up like this:
Possibilities of Government Formation:
Equation 1:
BJP can form the government if NC joins hands.
NC+BJP – likely numbers:
27+21= (48)
Equation 2:
Another productive possibility of government formation is if NC, INC, CPI (M) and PDP come together.
NC+INC+PDP+CPI (M)
27+08+05+01+07 probability seats (NC & PDP) = (48).
Dr. Adil M Nanda is Postdoc Researcher (Geography) and Dr. Suhail Rasool Mir is a Sociologist
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