NC-Congress May Be Biggest Winner in J and K, But Hung Verdict Seems Imminent
The fears expressed by National Conference (NC) Vice President Omar Abdullah and People’s Conference (PC) Chief Sajad Gani Lone seem to be coming true. J&K may be headed for a hung Verdict.
The estimates by researchers associated with C-KAR (Centre for Kashmir Analysis and Research) suggest about 28-30 seats for the National Conference across J&K, 7-8 for Congress and 7-8 for PDP.
The BJP tally is expected to be not below 25 seats and not above 30 seats.
In percentage terms, NC is expected to corner about 50 per cent of votes in the Kashmir region. BJP may win only 7 per cent of votes in Kashmir.
In the Jammu region, BJP may win about 53 per cent votes. The NC-Congress combine may be restricted to 20 per cent votes in the Jammu region.
The Fizzle-Out Of Engineer Rashid
Engineer Rashid’s magic, which held sway in the Lok Sabha elections, seems to have fizzled out during the Assembly polls. The much-touted Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) led by MP Sheikh Engineer Rashid may win only one seat. This is Engineer Rashid’s home constituency Langate in the Kupwara district, from where he has won multiple terms as MLA. His brother Sheikh Khursheed was the AIP candidate from Langate for the Assembly polls.
Even in Langate, the AIP candidate faces stiff competition. The seat is also contested by NC-Congress Alliance Candidate Irshaad Hussain Ganai (INC), Irfan Pandithpuri (PC) and Junaid Mir (IND).
Irfan Pandithpuri of PC is DDC Chairman Kupwara and has worked for the public in the absence of Rashid in recent years. Similarly, Junaid Mir is competent, has been closely associated with people, and is active on the ground. His vote share may dent the chances of Engineer Rashid’s candidate and PC’s Irfan – so the competition is high.
People’s Conference led by Sajad Gani Lone is expected to win from Handwara, which is Lone’s home constituency. Exit poll estimates say that the party has neck-to-neck competition in two other constituencies – Zadibal in Srinagar district and Pattan in Baramulla district.
NC may win 28-30 seats across J&K, with 7-8 for Congress and 7-8 for PDP. BJP tally is expected to be not below 25 seats and not above 30 seats
It is estimated that Mohd Yousuf Tarigami of CPI (M) may retain his Kulgam seat in the Assembly, from where he has won with a record four times earlier in 1996, 2002, 2008 and 2014. Tarigami had the support of NC for this constituency, which did not field any candidate from here.
Apni Party, led by former minister Altaf Bukhari, seems to be drawing a blank.
BJP Caught Between Expectation and Reality, Is In Denial Mode About Underperformance
In the 90 Assembly seats across J&K, independent candidates seem to be winning only in two constituencies. These are Udhampur East and Chhamb, which is in the Jammu district. According to estimates, independent candidates have a neck-to-neck competition in three Assembly constituencies – in Chanani against BJP, in Thana Mandi (ST) again against BJP and in Khan Sahib, against NC.
The neck-to-neck contest between major political parties is expected in six constituencies. These are Kupwara (NC-PDP); Lolab (NC-PDP), Sopore (NC-Congress); Pattan (NC-PC); Zadibal (NC-PC); and Pulwama (NC-PDP).
There is a disparity in BJP’s expectations in the Assembly elections and the ground realities. Our analysts say that the party is expected to win about 25-26 seats only. However, sources close to the BJP are in denial mode and believe that the party shall secure 27 to 32 seats.
NC is expected to win about 50 pc votes in Kashmir region, with only about 7 pc votes for BJP
NC has been out of power in J&K since 2014. But Kashmir’s grand old party seems to be headed for an impressive comeback with the largest share in the kitty.
The PDP’s graph is significantly down. Out of the 47 Assembly constituencies in Kashmir, PDP is expected to register a win in 7 to 8 constituencies only. The party will have to struggle for survival ahead.
Jamaat Candidates In Wilderness
A startling exit poll assessment is that Jamaat candidates do not seem to have enthused the voters. Not even a single candidate of Jamaat is expected to make it to the J&K Assembly, going by the current estimates. The age-old expression of ‘Ghar ke rahey na ghat ke’ seems to fit them well. The Jamaatis abandoned their traditional opposition to elections and jumped in the fray, but people do not seem to have reposed trust in them.
On October 1, the government extended Engineer Rashid’s bail until October 12. This was seen as a BJP move towards government formation in J&K.
With Rashid not likely to score high, the extended bail may not serve its intended purpose. Also, the extension of bail on the last day of polling in the late hours raised doubts among people.
In Jammu region, BJP may win about 53 pc votes, with about 20 pc votes for NC-Congress
On 1st October, the voting concluded with the third phase of elections in J&K. The bail for MP Rashid was extended in the evening during the concluding hours of polling. It is being discussed among people that the announcement time for bail extension was strategically fixed.
People questioned why Engineer Rashid was not given bail for a month initially, or why the bail was not extended during elections.
It was argued that the government didn’t want to compromise Rashid’s charisma or dent his personality as a BJP proxy.
In that case, it would have been easy for MP Rashid’s adversaries to build a narrative against him that he is being given special favours by the BJP.
Even though the NC-Congress combine is leading in the J&K Assembly polls, their combined seats may not cross the desired figure for the formation of government. In this situation, independent candidates, PDP and other small parties may trade high for their support to the NC-Congress alliance.
Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is aware that it may not win many seats. So, Mehbooba’s daughter Iltija is calling her party the “kingmaker” in the J&K Assembly elections. PDP does not have any other option if it wants to remain relevant in Kashmir politics. It shall have to be content as an alliance partner in the government – if the chance presents itself. Joining hands with the BJP to form the government will be like committing suicide twice over.
Zahoor Ahmad is the Deputy Director, Center for Kashmir Analysis and Research(C-KAR)
(Got a fresh perspective? CKAR invites original articles and opinion pieces that haven’t been published elsewhere. Send your submissions to deputydirector@c-kar.com)