In a Fix, Playing ‘Hide and Seek’ Tactics: Kashmir’s Politicians and the BJP Dilemma
Kashmir’s politicians are in a dilemma where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is concerned. A seasoned politician of the valley sums up their predicament when he says: “BJP vo aafat hai jo fayedemand bhi hai.” It is the only hen in Kashmir that lays the golden eggs, hence all covet it.
Overtly no regional party or any Kashmiri politician is with BJP, but all of them secretly desire BJP’s support, sifarish, and funding – barring the Congress and the CPI (M). Hence, they play ‘hide and seek’ with the BJP. Every single politician and party in J&K want to become Chief Minister or form the next government, become a Minister, Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA), Mayor, District Development Council (DDC) Chairman etc. with the support of the BJP. The problem is that nobody wants to be tagged with the saffron party. The exception is former Member Legislative Council (MLC) Rafeeq Shah, who joined the BJP recently.
In the forthcoming Assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir Union Territory, the saffron party is not expected to make major gains electorally in Kashmir valley. Having said that, BJP is the central focus of all political players in the region. The National Conference-Congress Combine is not fighting PDP or any other political party. Their entire electoral wargame is woven around the battle against the BJP.
There is a popular Kashmiri saying that befittingly describes the psychological scenario of the present-day Kashmir politicians. Gursas mál tah tsud het patah kani. This is a proverbial satire used for the man who makes a pretence of eating little while dining out and refuses the offer of more food, yet all the while he is longing to eat a big dinner.
All politicians want the BJP’s big dinner, but very tactically, sneakily and via the play of ‘hide and seek’. This dilemma of ‘I like you – I like you not – but someone guide me on how we can be together’ has entangled the Kashmir politicians on whether to choose or not to choose BJP overtly. The situation is well explained in a Kashmiri proverb, Gáv diyih náh tu Wutsh Cheyih náh. The cow will not give (milk) and the calf will not drink it.
This dilemma of ‘I like you – I like you not – but someone guide me on how we can be together’ has entangled the Kashmir politicians regarding BJP
J&K May Witness Split Mandate
Looking at the political scenario of the region, the pre-poll alliances and other electoral shenanigans, J&K UT is expected to witness a split mandate after the forthcoming Assembly elections. In Kashmir, the National Conference (NC) is being seen as a potential winner, while the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is facing desertions.
Some PDP leaders have left the party fold because of the alliance between NC and Congress. They see no future for the PDP in their constituency and are preferring to contest as independent candidates. Some are leaving to play the Engineer Rashid card and are testing their political fortunes in the Rashid-led Awami Ittehad Party (AIP).
PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti insists on labelling Kashmir as an “issue”. In her recent statements, she has dared the NC and Congress to adopt her party’s manifesto of “resolving the Kashmir issue”. “Forget alliance and seat sharing, If Congress and NC are ready to adopt our stand of resolving the Kashmir issue, we will give all the seats to them,” said Mehbooba Mufti.
It is a known fact in Kashmir that PDP has always given separatist colours to the party campaign to capture the ‘azadi’ sentiment vote bank and the pro-Pakistan vote bank in Kashmir.
Mehbooba Mufti’s challenge, of course, is politically motivated to lure voters. From the beginning, PDP has given Kashmir’s separatist lobby a political voice. In 2024, Mehbooba again wants to capture the ‘azadi’ sentiment constituency in the region.
Both NC and PDP are dynastic parties where an infinitesimal group decides the entire operations. NC is dominated by Omar Abdullah and his father Dr Farooq Abdullah. Similarly, PDP is Family and Family Pvt Ltd. In the past, PDP’s power equation was Mufti Sayeed, Mehbooba Mufti and her maternal uncle Sartaj Madni. Now PDP’s power equation is Mehbooba Mufti and Uncle Madni, with daughter Iltija in the wings.
Engineer Rashid turned out to be a tsunami in north Kashmir in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. Rashid’s AIP created a huge buzz with his sweeping win but may not be able to repeat the magic in the Assembly elections which are personality-centric and area-specific. The canvas for these elections is much smaller, and the local dynamics play a significant role.
The larger Jammu region is the only hope for BJP to enter the power corridors of J&K provided it is able to grab the lion’s share of the seats
Sajad Lone and Altaf Bukhari are two much-discussed players in contemporary Kashmir politics but cannot be seen as major forces in the Assembly elections. Lone can become a game changer if the BJP manages to win sufficient seats in the larger Jammu region.
Lone’s party is expected to win some seats in north Kashmir keeping in view his political calibre, background and local sentiment. Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party may not be able to make significant a mark.
Double Engine Sarkar In J&K Looks Doubtful
The saffron party has not been able to build a pro-BJP sentiment in Kashmir. Its dream of a double-engine sarkar in J&K looks doubtful. The party could have successfully worked on building a narrative in its favour, but it invested in the wrong people at the grassroots. This reflected badly on the party in the last few years.
Expecting a victory for the BJP in any part of Kashmir would be like daydreaming and expecting rice from the nettle plants. In ten long years of bureaucratic rule in Kashmir, people – particularly the underprivileged and those living in peripheries – have experienced inaccessibility to the corridors of power and are fatigued by the bureaucratic system. People are longing for civil government. The fatigue of those on the periphery and the lethargy of the officers who failed to address and reach the commoners will have a telling impact on the future and the electoral fate of the BJP in the Valley.
BJP’s fortunes in Jammu are markedly different since sentiment in favour of the saffron party is high there. The larger Jammu region is the only hope for BJP to enter the power corridors of J&K provided it is able to grab the lion’s share of the seats. If this does not happen, BJP may find itself out of the power equation in J&K.
Zahoor Ahmad is Deputy Director, Centre For kashmir Analysis and Research (C-KAR)
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